A recent statewide poll signals a tightening race in the upcoming 2026 New York gubernatorial election, with Governor Kathy Hochul’s lead over potential challenger Rep. Elise Stefanik shrinking significantly. Once enjoying a 25-point advantage, Hochul now holds a narrow 5-point lead, according to a survey conducted among likely voters.

The poll, conducted by GrayHouse in partnership with Siena College, gathered responses from 1,250 individuals and reveals a shifting political landscape shaped largely by public concerns over bail reform and the rising cost of living. These issues appear to be weighing heavily on voter sentiment and have contributed to a marked decline in the governor’s approval rating, which now sits below 40 percent.

Although Rep. Stefanik has not formally declared her candidacy, her presence in the poll underscores growing speculation about her potential bid. Her team responded to the findings by stating the results are indicative of a genuinely competitive race. In contrast, Governor Hochul’s camp dismissed the poll, questioning its reliability and suggesting it was driven by political agendas.

The poll results arrive more than two years ahead of the 2026 election but highlight the challenges Hochul may face in maintaining her position. Opinions on criminal justice policies, particularly bail reform, and economic pressures related to inflation and affordability, are emerging as key issues that could shape the race.

As of now, neither campaign has confirmed further action, but the numbers suggest that New York’s political climate could be in for a turbulent season leading up to the election. Voters and political observers alike will be watching closely to see whether Stefanik enters the race officially and how Hochul responds to the apparent shift in public opinion.